The Celtics Offseason (Real Quick)
I gave a quick synopsis on how I felt about this year’s Celtics and their path going forward here. That begs the question… what’s the plan for the offseason? What’s gonna happen in the offseason? Who knows?!?!?
Let’s run through a quick primer of where the team is at.
Possible Expiring Contracts
Brad Wanamaker (Expiring, Qualifying Offer Eligible)
Not really sure what to make of Brad. He’s earning the veteran’s minimum, but he played well enough in the playoffs that some team might offer him a two or three million dollar deal. It will depend on what the Celtics do with their draft picks, but given how much Stevens likes him and how cheap it will likely be to retain him, I give it a 50/50 shot he’s back.
Semi Ojeleye (Option, Non-Guaranteed)
Some outlets are reporting this as a non-guarantee, others as a team option, but the important bit is the Celtics have to option to waive Ojeleye. Similarly to Wanamaker, he’s a guy who’s been in the rotation, Brad clearly likes, and is very cheap. Once again it will depend how many draft picks are rostered in the upcoming draft and what the free agent plans are. With the emergence of Grant, I imagine that Semi is probably the most second-most likely of the Celtics to not be back next year
Javonte Green (Non-Guaranteed)
With a roster crunch pending and barring some consolidation, I’d guess Javonte is the most likely Celtic to be gone next year. Hopefully he showed enough in his time here to find his way onto another roster as a hyper-athlete and can follow the path of Nader and Dozier before him, but he’s probably going to be a roster casualty to one of the Celtics draft picks.
Enes Kanter (Player Option)
Kanter has a $5M team option but seems to like it here. I’m not sure how bothered he is by the possible chance Robert Williams leaps him on the depth chart, or how he feels about the Celtics platoon depth. I would put at 75% Kanter opts back in (there’s only a few teams with money) and if he does, he becomes an expiring, movable salary for the Celtics this offseason who has spot usefulness as part of big platoon.
Daniel Theis (Non-Guaranteed)
As a starter or high end bench big, Theis is massively outplaying his $5M contract so I would be shocked if the Celtics cut him. Even if the Celtics go another direction with their big men, Theis would have real trade value and letting him go would be foolish. I expect him back for next year.
Gordon Hayward (Player Option)
The Gamer has a chance to opt out of his $34M contract this offseason, but the second injury all but extinguished the chances of that. Gordon likely wouldn’t command that money on the open market right now, especially given which teams have cap space, so I would be floored if he opted out and walked away. Gordon will probably represent the Celtics chosen vehicle for trying to make big trades, given his salary, but a lot of this will depend on how he looks next year after another injury filled year.
On Jayson Tatum’s extension
It will be the full max and offered the first day available. No reason for Jayson to say no. Lock it in. This is a guarantee.
The Salary Cap
(Shrug emoji)
It’s tough to tell what the league will be doing with BRI, particularly with all the lost revenue of COVID-19 and how this will all be settled. BRI (Basketball Related Income) is how the salary cap, mid level exceptions, tax line and other stuff is calculated, so it’s tough to take stock of what the Celtics financials are. Actually, it’s impossible.
What is clear is that the Celtics will almost certainly be tax payers, and only have access to the Bi Annual and tax payer (mini) mid level exceptions. They will also likely be above the Apron, and not be able to do “sign and trades” and other maneuvers that hard cap a team. That means no Davis Bertans until at least January or err… whatever the new date for trading re-signed players is.
There’s specifics about how much money Wyc will be paying which… who care. The main thing is that if Kanter, Theis and Gordon are all back like I assume, I don’t see how this team isn’t deep in the tax.
Free agents? Ehhhhh…
The Celtics are really only going to have access to the mini-MLE, so any big improvements to the team will come through trades, draft, after trade eligibility for new contracts next year. Unlikely the Celtics get a real impact guy with the mMLE or BAE (biannual exception) as those are pretty small and probably smaller if the cap shrinks. The Celtics will be looking at edge of the rotation guys like Noah Vonleh, Nerlens Noel, Justin Holiday… that level of player. Ideally, old friend Aron Baynes comes home, but I think he’s played himself out of that price range.
Draft
I’ve never known less about a draft class and I’ve always been bad at it anyway. I hated the Tatum and Brown picks.So I won’t try! For good NBA draft analysis please check in with my pals @Maxacarlin, @Cosmis, and @Jackfrank_jjf Were I the Celtics, I’d be looking for a guard to replace Wanamaker’s minutes and (barring a trade) perhaps looking to stash or trade up/out. Not a good roster situation for multiple picks.
What’s Danny Ainge thinking?
If history is any indication, Ainge is once again probably thinking about trading for a big star. This has been the personal philsophy of Da Cap Gawd Dangercart since back in the ancient days and he’s been right (check the date) The “hahaha Danny Ainge never trades” thing is a fun bit, especially when the Celtics leak how close they were to a deal, but it’s also just not really true. They were clearly angling to be in the Anthony Davis sweepstakes and were until Davis/Klutch made it clear he was going to LA. Jimmy Butler and Paul George trades would have cost the Jayson Tatum pick so I think Ainge is vindicated for valuing those correctly.
The biggest piece of counter-evidence is that… Ainge literally traded for the last disgruntled star before Anthony Davis and Kawhi Leonard! (Leonard is an eye of the beholder thing. Would it have been worth giving up 5 years of Jaylen Brown for a 50% chance at a title in one year? I see both sides. Toronto had less to lose. I’m at peace with it/cope.) So yes, other fan bases will troll when it comes to “Danny Ainge doesn’t trade” but there’s a reason the Celtics are always brought up whenever a high end player is available. It’s hard to remember, considering the Celtics have a streak of four seasons winning at least a playoff series, but this is still a team with a lot of good young assets. It’s something most contending teams don’t really have and why the Celtics still make sense as a trade partner if you are a team being held hostage by a star who wants out.
It’s never “likely” that you end up with one of these stars, but there’s enough interesting situations unfolding across the league that… well, I’m sure Ainge has his eye on.
Victor Oladipo
Zach Lowe has darkly intoned this on his podcast, but it seems to be circulating in the NBA rumor mill that Victor Oladipo is a guy who may have some gruntle levels. Kind of a shame because I think the Pacers are a fun team, but I also understand. Victor busted his ass to make himself an All-Star, people forget how far he’s come since Orlando.
He’s making $21M this year and is expiring after that so… any team trading for him has to be willing to take on some risk. I think the Celtics make a lot of sense as a landing spot, even with Kemba on the team. Dipo can function both off ball and on ball, can spare Kemba the tougher guard assignment, and run things with staggered minutes. Gordon Hayward is from Indiana, so optically you save yourself a little hassle if you’re Kevin Pritchard and you get some picks for your trouble, with a chance to maybe salvage an all-star, which a healthy Hayward is (big if).
Dipo has had his own injury trouble over the years, and with most asset heavy teams probably not willing to risk it on an expiring guy like Oladipo, I think it’s worth checking out.
In all likelihood, someone will have a better offer, but you gotta investigate with a guy this talented who fits the timeline.
Bradley Beal
Beal claims he’s fine where he is, the Wizards claim they are fine moving forward with him and Wall… Sure whatever, we’ll see how this season goes for them. Beal is only under contract for the year after this, and as a result he’s been linked to a bunch of teams. Beal is probably Tatum’s oldest and closest friend in the league and considering both how good Brad Beal is and that Tatum is the franchise… You can understand why I’m interested in this situation.
The Wizards would probably like to deal west, and beal has been linked to the big LA teams before, but they don’t have much in the way of assets. A lot of what was said about Oladipo applies here, both in terms of Beal’s fit and why the Celtics might be more willing to risk a trade for a flight risk guy. With his and Tatum’s close history, I think Beal might even be a little safer to deal for.
The question is, what is Washington looking for? They’ve been operating like a perennial 2nd round team when it’s clear they are at best a playoff bubble team. Perhaps a healthy Wall turns that around, and maybe that’s what the Wizards are thinking. I don’t get the impression they want a full rebuild and that might be what ultimately sinks this deal.
On the other hand… it also might be what talks them into Gordon Hayward. (Am I being ironic? Who knows!?!)
Karl Anthony Towns
KAT is the heir apparent to the “can this guy be a winning player” until he goes to another team and is suddenly a winning player. KAT is under contract for a WHILE (through 2024) but also seems to be the most openly disgruntled star we have in the league. You are hearing things like “as good as gone”.
AS GOOD AS GONE!
I’m always a little skeptical of that stuff, but the Wolves doing things like “trading for his friend” seem to back up that they are worried about something. Especially for a team that has him under contract. Signs are pointing to Chicago for some reason, but I don’t see a reason the Celtics wouldn’t get involved here and sniff around.
This would probably be something that ended up costing Jaylen Brown, but the Celtics could also “Nets trade” themselves like the Lakers and Clippers did for their own team by promising a bunch of future picks. Young, elite players under contract for a while like KAT are the guys that you push all the chips in for when they are available (if he is available) and he’s a natural fit with the rest of the team. This whole situation reeks of Danny Ainge
Giannis Antetokounmpo
I know.
BUT, you bet your ass Danny will make the calls.
It would cost pretty much everything that’s not Tatum. That said, a league MVP and Tatum is a contender, regardless of who or what else is on the roster. The Lakers are literally proving that right now.
I’d be SHOCKED if they traded him within the East, but also I’m not sure what the package is that other teams would offer that would top Jaylen Brown headline package. If the Warriors think they are getting Giannis for Wiggins/picks… lol. But there are other teams out there who might be able to make a compelling case. It’s all about who thinks they can re-sign him. Like is something like a Harden Giannis swap even feasible?
(All this said, I love Jaylen and Smart for personal reasons and would feel very bad about trading them even for an MVP. Absolute freak shit but I can’t help myself I love those guys)
The most likely scenario is he stays put because if I’m Milwaukee I feel better gambling on him resigning for nothing than taking an underwhelming package anyway. All the teams salivating over this are free agent freaks anyway.
